Perhaps this was fortuitous, but I randomly snapped this shot outside the Obama HQ in downtown Des Moines earlier today. True, it was Obama's night tonight, taking 38% of the vote while Edwards took second with 30% and Clinton slid into third at 29%.
But it was also the Democrats' night in terms of turnout, with some 225,000 Dems caucusing versus about 120,000 Republicans. Both parties logged historic numbers, up from about 124,000 (D) and 87,000 (R) in 2004, but Dems appeared to be on fire.
His supporters may be young but they weren't green. Led by precinct captain Philip James (front and center), Obama folks lined up for their head count in precinct 46, where they ended up with 175 votes compared to Edwards' 89 and Clinton's 79 votes.
James said the Obama campaign knew going into the evening that they had identified 132 supporters in precinct 46, which would have been nearly half of the 260 people they anticipated would show up to caucus (instead, 425 came out). "We didn't expect it to be so chaotic," he said. But they were clearly prepared for a strong Obama showing.
Jeff Westendorf reports that, like almost everywhere else, turn out was huge at his caucus, with a line out the door and too many people for too small a space. "It was amazing and chaotic," he says, noting that about 350 caucusers showed up for a smallish class room. After voting for the candidates, only about 40 people hung in to debate the party platform.
Of the three proposals he hoped to submit on taxes, a more inclusive definition of family, and repealing "don't ask, don't tell," he only presented the first two. His platform to replace the income tax with some type of consumption/sales tax passed.
His plank on expanding the definition of family was a bit more complicated. The platform debate began with someone making a proposal to define marriage as being between a man and a woman. Although Westendorf made a counter proposal, the plank passed. Then he offered his family platform, which won only about 7 votes out of 40, picked up a few more votes on a second round, but ultimately failed. Westendorf was slightly disappointed but also satisfied to some extent. "People listened, asked questions, debated," he said. "But I'm proud of what I did. You change people one vote at a time."
Above is R.J. with other Biden supporters at the beginning of the night, below he makes the switch to Richardson. R.J.'s third choice was Hillary Clinton, but he didn't have to go that far when Richardson won enough support on the second round of voting to meet the 15% threshold. The Edwards precinct captain was intent on making sure Richardson was viable for the very reason that they didn't want his camp to dissolve and "pad" either a Clinton or Obama lead – Edwards was willing to send some supporters over to Richardson in order to make him viable. Turns out, that wasn't necessary in precinct 46.
Kerry here, I'm back at the returns center in Iowa where they are reporting that about 221,000 people participated in the caucus process tonight with 95% of the precincts reporting. That's almost double the turnout in 2004, when somewhere between 122,000 – 124,000 Iowans voiced their opinion.
The picture above is of R.J.'s precinct, 46, where the initial room that we were assigned to was so packed, we didn't have the space to break into preference groups and do a head count. I must say, people remained amazingly patient while the precinct captain negotiated across party lines for the spacious gymnasium where the Republicans where caucusing in the same elementary school. It was a much longer process than most people planned on, yet nearly everyone stayed till the vote was taken. The word 'dedication' comes to mind.
The final tally looks like this: Obama, 175; Edwards, 89; and Clinton, 79. Richardson became viable with 69.
How's this for a little politics? Edwards' precinct captain Paul Knupp waited at the beginning of the realignment process to see if Richardson would become viable with Biden, Kucinich and Dodd supporters. If Richardson didn't look like he was going to make the count, Paul was prepared to send over 10 of his people to make him viable. Why? Because if Richardson hadn't made it, 56 of his caucusers would be up for grabs, and Paul wasn't about to "pad Obama or Clinton.” Once he figured out Richardson was viable, then he started working on courting a few more caucus goers over to Edwards.
The initial count is in for precinct 46: Obama has 167; Edwards, 79; and Clinton, 76. So they're all viable. Richardson is darn close with 56. Biden has 25; Kucinich has 8; and Dodd picked up 3. None of them will make the 15%.
Now for the realignment process. There's this whole system of bargaining going on to woo the supporters of nonviable supporters over to other candidates. A bunch of Biden people are going over to Richardson to make him viable. Turns out my math was off. Each candidate only needs 64 to be viable, so he only needs to pick up 8 people from any other camp. This clearly had some of Richardson's people excited, and they were cheering to get people to come over until the precinct captain said, "There's 400 people in this room, you can't cheer. This has to be low key." But they're using anything they can to keep Richardson in this.
We're in the gym now, and I don't know the head count, but from the looks of things about half the people are going for Obama. It doesn't look like Biden is going to get the magic 65. Hillary supporters have already begun to descend on the Biden crowd, trying to woo them over to the Clinton camp. R.J. says, "that's appealing, because I'm not a big Obama fan."
Across town at precinct 41, there are 119 people. 85 went for Obama, 30 for Clinton. It's a small snapshot, but it does look like there's potential for Obama to take Des Moines.
Lamar tells me he choose McCain in the end. The total at precinct 1 ended up 141 with latecomers. Huckabee had 45, McCain, 29, Romney 23 and Thompson, 18. Remember, the Republicans run their caucus almost like a primary, so a candidate doesn't need to hit that 15% to be viable.
A bit of mayhem at precinct 46. We're swapping rooms with the Republicans, who were in the much roomier gym. 425 people have showed up to caucus, which turns out way too many for the room we've been assigned. It's so packed that three people came to the door saying,"I've got to get out of here. It's way too claustrophobic." One guy threatened to call the fire department.
The 425 Democratic caucus goers means each candidate has to get 65 people to be viable.
Lamar texted to say that 133 Republicans turned out to caucus in precinct 1. At most, they'd expected 75.
Turnout is huge at the Monroe Elementary School. Precinct 46 captain James Peterson says the last time there was a caucus at the school in 2004, about 280 people showed up. Tonight there's no way there's room for all the people that are here. Republican caucus goer Lamar Lapp just sent a text message that this is by far the largest turnout he's ever seen and he's done this three times before.
It makes sense. I haven't heard anything but politics since I got here, whether I'm in a bar or a coffee shop. There is so much interest in this particular race. Iowans are feeling how critical this election is, both at home and abroad, and they're taking their role in it very seriously.
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